First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 18

Botev Plovdiv–Levski Krumovgrad

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 5 December 2024 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'Botev PlovdivA. Korošec

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Botev Plovdiv 1.28 · Levski Krumovgrad 0.73. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

I. Andreev→

5.07

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.1%: “Botev Plovdiv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Botev Plovdiv, 0.73 for Levski Krumovgrad.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (1X — Botev Plovdiv win or draw).
These values were computed from 652 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Botev Plovdiv to win49.1%

Draw30.8%

Levski Krumovgrad to win20.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Botev Plovdiv win or draw79.9%

12 — any result other than a draw69.2%

X2 — draw or Levski Krumovgrad win50.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Botev Plovdiv lead at half-time29.4%

Level at half-time50.2%

Levski Krumovgrad lead at half-time20.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Botev Plovdiv ahead or level79.6%

12 — not level at half-time49.8%

X2 — level or Levski Krumovgrad ahead70.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 652 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Botev Plovdiv: at least 11
Levski Krumovgrad: at least 12

Corners

Botev Plovdiv: at least 5
Levski Krumovgrad: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Botev Plovdiv score1.28

Attack: Botev Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levski Krumovgrad's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levski Krumovgrad score0.73

Attack: Levski Krumovgrad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Plovdiv concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.7%1–114.5%0–013.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.