First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 18

Beroe–Botev Vratsa

5–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 4 December 2024 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Beroe, Stara Zagora

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'Botev VratsaD. Georgiev · red card
38'BeroeL. Godoy (penalty)
45+2'BeroeL. Godoy
52'Botev VratsaM. Smolenski · red card
55'BeroeL. Godoy
65'Botev VratsaM. S. Bachev

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beroe 1.60 · Botev Vratsa 0.63. On the pitch: 5-1.

Referee

D. Stalev→

5.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.1%: “Beroe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Beroe, 0.63 for Botev Vratsa.
The highest double chance value is 86.9% (1X — Beroe win or draw).
These values were computed from 648 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beroe to win61.1%

Draw25.7%

Botev Vratsa to win13.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 2–0

Beroe lead at half-time40.3%

Level at half-time45.9%

Botev Vratsa lead at half-time13.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Beroe ahead or level86.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Botev Vratsa ahead59.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 648 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beroe: at least 11
Botev Vratsa: at least 13

Corners

Beroe: at least 4
Botev Vratsa: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beroe score1.60

Attack: Beroe score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Botev Vratsa concede 49% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Vratsa score0.63

Attack: Botev Vratsa score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beroe's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.8%2–014.2%1–112.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.