First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 18

CSKA 1948–Septemvri Sofia

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 3 December 2024 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Vitosha, Bistrica

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'CSKA 1948M. Ilievski
58'Septemvri SofiaA. Chandarov · red card
90+5'CSKA 1948Y. Serdiuk

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA 1948 1.65 · Septemvri Sofia 0.89. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

M. Pavlov→

5.63

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.3%: “CSKA 1948 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for CSKA 1948, 0.89 for Septemvri Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 81.3% (1X — CSKA 1948 win or draw).
These values were computed from 645 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA 1948 to win55.3%

Draw26.0%

Septemvri Sofia to win18.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

CSKA 1948 lead at half-time47.8%

Level at half-time39.7%

Septemvri Sofia lead at half-time12.5%

First-half double chance

1X — CSKA 1948 ahead or level87.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Septemvri Sofia ahead52.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 645 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

CSKA 1948: at least 10
Septemvri Sofia: at least 12

Corners

CSKA 1948: at least 6
Septemvri Sofia: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA 1948 score1.65

Attack: CSKA 1948 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Septemvri Sofia concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Septemvri Sofia score0.89

Attack: Septemvri Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: CSKA 1948's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–012.4%2–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.