First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 17

Septemvri Sofia–Cherno More Varna

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 29 November 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Vasil Levski, Sofia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Cherno More VarnaA. Donchev
37'Cherno More VarnaM. Soula (penalty)
49'Septemvri SofiaXandro Schenk
79'Septemvri SofiaN. Velichkovski · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Septemvri Sofia 0.66 · Cherno More Varna 1.53. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

V. Valkov→

4.52

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.5%: “Cherno More Varna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.66 for Septemvri Sofia, 1.53 for Cherno More Varna.
The highest double chance value is 85.5% (X2 — draw or Cherno More Varna win).
These values were computed from 638 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Septemvri Sofia to win14.5%

Draw26.9%

Cherno More Varna to win58.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–2

Septemvri Sofia lead at half-time18.9%

Level at half-time46.4%

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time34.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Septemvri Sofia ahead or level65.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Cherno More Varna ahead81.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 638 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Septemvri Sofia: at least 11
Cherno More Varna: at least 11

Corners

Septemvri Sofia: at least 2
Cherno More Varna: at least 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Septemvri Sofia score0.66

Attack: Septemvri Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 51% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cherno More Varna score1.53

Attack: Cherno More Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Septemvri Sofia concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–116.8%0–213.6%1–112.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.