First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 16

Levski Sofia–Lokomotiv Sofia

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 November 2024 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Levski SofiaM. Petkov
38'Levski SofiaK. Dimitrov

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levski Sofia 2.10 · Lokomotiv Sofia 0.39. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

K. Georgiev→

6.14

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.8%: “Levski Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.10 for Levski Sofia, 0.39 for Lokomotiv Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 95.3% (1X — Levski Sofia win or draw).
These values were computed from 632 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levski Sofia to win78.8%

Draw16.5%

Lokomotiv Sofia to win4.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Levski Sofia win or draw95.3%

12 — any result other than a draw83.5%

X2 — draw or Lokomotiv Sofia win21.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.5%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Levski Sofia lead at half-time66.1%

Level at half-time31.1%

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time2.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Levski Sofia ahead or level97.2%

12 — not level at half-time68.9%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Sofia ahead33.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 632 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levski Sofia: at least 12
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 13

Corners

Levski Sofia: at least 6
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals45.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,317 of 4,968 predictions were correct (46.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 42.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levski Sofia score2.10

Attack: Levski Sofia score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score0.39

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levski Sofia concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–019.2%1–017.0%3–013.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.