First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 16

Arda Kardzhali–Lokomotiv Plovdiv

4–2

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 November 2024 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Arda, Kerdjali

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Arda KardzhaliS. Ivanov
28'Arda KardzhaliD. Velkovski
45+1'Lokomotiv PlovdivV. Medved
45+2'Arda KardzhaliEfe Ali (own goal)
57'Arda KardzhaliB. Tsonev
77'Lokomotiv PlovdivD. Iliev (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arda Kardzhali 1.58 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.96. On the pitch: 4-2.

Referee

I. Andreev→

5.14

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Arda Kardzhali to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Arda Kardzhali, 0.96 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (1X — Arda Kardzhali win or draw).
These values were computed from 630 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arda Kardzhali to win51.4%

Draw27.0%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win21.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 3–1

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time51.5%

Level at half-time39.6%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv lead at half-time8.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Arda Kardzhali ahead or level91.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Plovdiv ahead48.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 630 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arda Kardzhali: at least 11
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 12

Corners

Arda Kardzhali: at least 4
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.58

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Plovdiv score0.96

Attack: Lokomotiv Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–011.7%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.