First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 13

Slavia Sofia–Lokomotiv Sofia

3–2

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 24 October 2024 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Slavia, Sofia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Slavia SofiaQ. Seedorf
16'Slavia SofiaI. Minchev (penalty)
38'Lokomotiv SofiaA. Aralica
45+4'Slavia SofiaV. Nikolov
63'Lokomotiv SofiaA. Aralica

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slavia Sofia 1.57 · Lokomotiv Sofia 0.62. On the pitch: 3-2.

Referee

V. Valkov→

4.46

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.8%: “Slavia Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Slavia Sofia, 0.62 for Lokomotiv Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 86.9% (1X — Slavia Sofia win or draw).
These values were computed from 605 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slavia Sofia to win60.8%

Draw26.1%

Lokomotiv Sofia to win13.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 3–1

Slavia Sofia lead at half-time39.1%

Level at half-time44.7%

Lokomotiv Sofia lead at half-time16.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Slavia Sofia ahead or level83.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Lokomotiv Sofia ahead60.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 605 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slavia Sofia: at least 13
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 11

Corners

Slavia Sofia: at least 6
Lokomotiv Sofia: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slavia Sofia score1.57

Attack: Slavia Sofia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lokomotiv Sofia concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lokomotiv Sofia score0.62

Attack: Lokomotiv Sofia score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Sofia's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–017.3%2–014.3%1–112.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.