First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 8

Cherno More Varna–Hebar 1918

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 20 October 2024 at 13:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Ticha, Varna

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

75'Cherno More VarnaDudu

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cherno More Varna 1.84 · Hebar 1918 0.40. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

D. Stalev→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.4%: “Cherno More Varna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Cherno More Varna, 0.40 for Hebar 1918.
The highest double chance value is 93.7% (1X — Cherno More Varna win or draw).
These values were computed from 601 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cherno More Varna to win73.4%

Draw20.2%

Hebar 1918 to win6.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,222 predictions were correct (74.6%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cherno More Varna lead at half-time54.6%

Level at half-time40.0%

Hebar 1918 lead at half-time5.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Cherno More Varna ahead or level94.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Hebar 1918 ahead45.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 601 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cherno More Varna: at least 12
Hebar 1918: at least 11

Corners

Cherno More Varna: at least 6
Hebar 1918: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cherno More Varna score1.84

Attack: Cherno More Varna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hebar 1918 concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hebar 1918 score0.40

Attack: Hebar 1918 score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cherno More Varna concede 48% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–019.4%2–018.9%3–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.