First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 6

Arda Kardzhali–CSKA Sofia

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 August 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Arena Arda, Kerdjali

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'Arda KardzhaliNnamdi Chinonso Offor
53'Arda KardzhaliI. Tilev
85'CSKA SofiaG. Koyalipou

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arda Kardzhali		CSKA Sofia
14	Shots	20
6	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	13
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
1	Corners	11
3	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
362	Passes	322
298	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arda Kardzhali 1.09 · CSKA Sofia 1.43. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Arda Kardzhali 14 · CSKA Sofia 20; on target 6 and 7.

Referee

V. El Hatib→

5.22

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.3%: “CSKA Sofia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Arda Kardzhali, 1.43 for CSKA Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (X2 — draw or CSKA Sofia win).
These values were computed from 548 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arda Kardzhali to win27.3%

Draw28.4%

CSKA Sofia to win44.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,613 of 7,010 predictions were correct (51.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Arda Kardzhali win or draw55.7%

12 — any result other than a draw71.6%

X2 — draw or CSKA Sofia win72.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Arda Kardzhali lead at half-time22.1%

Level at half-time45.2%

CSKA Sofia lead at half-time32.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Arda Kardzhali ahead or level67.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or CSKA Sofia ahead77.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 548 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arda Kardzhali: at least 10Actual: 7
CSKA Sofia: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Arda Kardzhali: at least 4Actual: 1
CSKA Sofia: at least 4Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals46.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,317 of 4,968 predictions were correct (46.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arda Kardzhali score1.09

Attack: Arda Kardzhali score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals CSKA Sofia score1.43

Attack: CSKA Sofia score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Arda Kardzhali's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–110.7%1–29.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 548 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 65 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.