First League · Bulgaria · Regular Season - 3

Levski Krumovgrad–Botev Plovdiv

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 August 2024 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex, Plovdiv

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'Botev PlovdivJames Eto'o

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levski Krumovgrad		Botev Plovdiv
12	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	11
1	Offsides	2
34%	Possession	66%
243	Passes	504
167	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levski Krumovgrad 1.40 · Botev Plovdiv 1.22. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Levski Krumovgrad 12 · Botev Plovdiv 18; on target 3 and 4.
Botev Plovdiv kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

V. El Hatib→

5.32

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.4%: “Levski Krumovgrad to win”. Second comes “Botev Plovdiv to win” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Levski Krumovgrad, 1.22 for Botev Plovdiv.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 530 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levski Krumovgrad to win40.4%

Draw28.2%

Botev Plovdiv to win31.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Levski Krumovgrad lead at half-time44.0%

Level at half-time41.0%

Botev Plovdiv lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Levski Krumovgrad ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Botev Plovdiv ahead56.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 530 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levski Krumovgrad: at least 12Actual: 15
Botev Plovdiv: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Levski Krumovgrad: at least 4Actual: 3
Botev Plovdiv: at least 4Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levski Krumovgrad score1.40

Attack: Levski Krumovgrad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Botev Plovdiv's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Botev Plovdiv score1.22

Attack: Botev Plovdiv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levski Krumovgrad's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.5%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.