Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Relegation Round - 5

Dukla Praha–České Budějovice

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 May 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Juliska, Praha

Goals and red cards

17'České BudějoviceJan Zíka (assist: P. Pekarík)
31'Dukla PrahaJ. Hora (assist: M. Doda)
38'Dukla PrahaJ. Peterka

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dukla Praha		České Budějovice
15	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	6
0	Offsides	3
44%	Possession	56%
354	Passes	457
278	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dukla Praha 1.64 · České Budějovice 0.85. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Dukla Praha 15 · České Budějovice 13; on target 5 and 3.
České Budějovice kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

V. Opočenský→

3.80

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.1%: “Dukla Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Dukla Praha, 0.85 for České Budějovice.
The highest double chance value is 82.2% (1X — Dukla Praha win or draw).
These values were computed from 765 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dukla Praha to win56.1%

Draw26.1%

České Budějovice to win17.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Dukla Praha lead at half-time34.6%

Level at half-time44.9%

České Budějovice lead at half-time20.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Dukla Praha ahead or level79.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or České Budějovice ahead65.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 765 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dukla Praha: at least 9Actual: 8
České Budějovice: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Dukla Praha: at least 5Actual: 2
České Budějovice: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dukla Praha score1.64

Attack: Dukla Praha score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: České Budějovice concede 55% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals České Budějovice score0.85

Attack: České Budějovice score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dukla Praha's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–013.0%2–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.