Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Championship Round - 4

Sigma Olomouc–Plzen

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Andrův stadion, Olomouc

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+1'Sigma OlomoucJ. Chvatal (assist: A. Rusek)
46'PlzenM. Vydra
68'PlzenV. Jemelka (assist: L. Kalvach)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sigma Olomouc		Plzen
5	Shots	21
1	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	17
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	14
0	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
361	Passes	418
247	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sigma Olomouc 1.07 · Plzen 1.71. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Sigma Olomouc 5 · Plzen 21; on target 1 and 6.

Referee

O. Pechanec→

5.12

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.1%: “Plzen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for Sigma Olomouc, 1.71 for Plzen.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (X2 — draw or Plzen win).
These values were computed from 759 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sigma Olomouc to win22.3%

Draw25.7%

Plzen to win52.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sigma Olomouc lead at half-time17.7%

Level at half-time38.5%

Plzen lead at half-time43.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Sigma Olomouc ahead or level56.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Plzen ahead82.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 759 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sigma Olomouc: at least 11Actual: 12
Plzen: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Sigma Olomouc: at least 4Actual: 2
Plzen: at least 5Actual: 14

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sigma Olomouc score1.07

Attack: Sigma Olomouc score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Plzen concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Plzen score1.71

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Sigma Olomouc's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–210.7%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.