Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Relegation Round - 4

České Budějovice–Teplice

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Ceské Budejovice

Goals and red cards

41'TepliceM. Yasser (assist: Abdallah Gning)
50'TepliceD. Danihel (assist: Albert Labík)
52'TepliceAlbert Labík (assist: M. Radosta)

Match statistics

Match statistics
České Budějovice		Teplice
13	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
2	Corners	4
4	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
377	Passes	295
309	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: České Budějovice 0.96 · Teplice 1.57. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots České Budějovice 13 · Teplice 13; on target 6 and 4.
České Budějovice kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

L. Glogar→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.3%: “Teplice to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.96 for České Budějovice, 1.57 for Teplice.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (X2 — draw or Teplice win).
These values were computed from 759 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

České Budějovice to win21.6%

Draw27.0%

Teplice to win51.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	20

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — České Budějovice win or draw48.7%

12 — any result other than a draw73.0%

X2 — draw or Teplice win78.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

České Budějovice lead at half-time19.6%

Level at half-time44.2%

Teplice lead at half-time36.2%

First-half double chance

1X — České Budějovice ahead or level63.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Teplice ahead80.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 759 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

České Budějovice: at least 11Actual: 15
Teplice: at least 11Actual: 20

Corners

České Budějovice: at least 4Actual: 2
Teplice: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals České Budějovice score0.96

Attack: České Budějovice score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Teplice's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Teplice score1.57

Attack: Teplice score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: České Budějovice concede 55% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%0–111.7%1–210.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.