Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals

Hradec Králové–Karviná

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové

Goals and red cards

74'Hradec KrálovéVáclav Pilař (assist: Jakub Klíma)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hradec Králové		Karviná
12	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
316	Passes	473
236	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hradec Králové 1.74 · Karviná 1.08. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Hradec Králové 12 · Karviná 12; on target 4 and 3.
Karviná kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

V. Opočenský→

4.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.4%: “Hradec Králové to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Hradec Králové, 1.08 for Karviná.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (1X — Hradec Králové win or draw).
These values were computed from 753 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hradec Králové to win52.4%

Draw25.4%

Karviná to win22.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hradec Králové lead at half-time46.6%

Level at half-time37.7%

Karviná lead at half-time15.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Hradec Králové ahead or level84.2%

12 — not level at half-time62.3%

X2 — level or Karviná ahead53.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 753 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hradec Králové: at least 10Actual: 11
Karviná: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

Hradec Králové: at least 5Actual: 6
Karviná: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hradec Králové score1.74

Attack: Hradec Králové score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karviná concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karviná score1.08

Attack: Karviná score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hradec Králové's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–110.8%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.