Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Relegation Round - 1

České Budějovice–Mlada Boleslav

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 April 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Ceské Budejovice

Goals and red cards

37'České BudějoviceU. Ekpai · red card
53'Mlada BoleslavMatyáš Vojta (assist: D. Kostka)
58'Mlada BoleslavMatyáš Vojta (assist: M. Ševčík)
70'České BudějoviceQuadri Adediran (assist: M. Koné)

Match statistics

Match statistics
České Budějovice		Mlada Boleslav
14	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
36%	Possession	64%
284	Passes	519
217	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: České Budějovice 1.02 · Mlada Boleslav 1.75. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots České Budějovice 14 · Mlada Boleslav 13; on target 3 and 4.
Mlada Boleslav kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

M. Radina→

4.52

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.3%: “Mlada Boleslav to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for České Budějovice, 1.75 for Mlada Boleslav.
The highest double chance value is 79.5% (X2 — draw or Mlada Boleslav win).
These values were computed from 750 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

České Budějovice to win20.5%

Draw25.2%

Mlada Boleslav to win54.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

České Budějovice lead at half-time16.5%

Level at half-time39.7%

Mlada Boleslav lead at half-time43.8%

First-half double chance

1X — České Budějovice ahead or level56.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Mlada Boleslav ahead83.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 750 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

České Budějovice: at least 10Actual: 10
Mlada Boleslav: at least 10Actual: 17

Corners

České Budějovice: at least 4Actual: 8
Mlada Boleslav: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals České Budějovice score1.02

Attack: České Budějovice score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mlada Boleslav concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mlada Boleslav score1.75

Attack: Mlada Boleslav score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: České Budějovice concede 55% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–210.8%0–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.