Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 30

Slovan Liberec–Karviná

2–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 April 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion U Nisy, Liberec

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Slovan LiberecSantiago Eneme (assist: Lukáš Masopust)
45'KarvináF. Vecheta (assist: Alexandr Bužek)
48'Slovan LiberecR. Krollis (assist: Santiago Eneme)
51'KarvináF. Vecheta (assist: Alexandr Bužek)
69'KarvináEbrima Singhateh

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slovan Liberec		Karviná
21	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
350	Passes	405
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slovan Liberec 1.94 · Karviná 0.94. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Slovan Liberec 21 · Karviná 6; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

D. Vokoun→

4.63

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.1%: “Slovan Liberec to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for Slovan Liberec, 0.94 for Karviná.
The highest double chance value is 83.9% (1X — Slovan Liberec win or draw).
These values were computed from 742 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slovan Liberec to win61.1%

Draw22.9%

Karviná to win16.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Slovan Liberec lead at half-time52.7%

Level at half-time35.9%

Karviná lead at half-time11.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Slovan Liberec ahead or level88.6%

12 — not level at half-time64.1%

X2 — level or Karviná ahead47.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 742 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slovan Liberec: at least 11Actual: 11
Karviná: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Slovan Liberec: at least 5Actual: 7
Karviná: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slovan Liberec score1.94

Attack: Slovan Liberec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karviná concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karviná score0.94

Attack: Karviná score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slovan Liberec concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–111.0%2–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.