Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 27

Hradec Králové–České Budějovice

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 March 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'Hradec KrálovéJakub Klíma (assist: A. Vlkanova)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hradec Králové		České Budějovice
12	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	0
8	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	5
58%	Possession	42%
473	Passes	343
371	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hradec Králové 2.13 · České Budějovice 0.64. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Hradec Králové 12 · České Budějovice 6; on target 4 and 0.
Hradec Králové kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

D. Černý→

4.51

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.7%: “Hradec Králové to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.13 for Hradec Králové, 0.64 for České Budějovice.
The highest double chance value is 91.4% (1X — Hradec Králové win or draw).
These values were computed from 722 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hradec Králové to win72.7%

Draw18.8%

České Budějovice to win8.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hradec Králové lead at half-time60.2%

Level at half-time33.6%

České Budějovice lead at half-time6.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Hradec Králové ahead or level93.8%

12 — not level at half-time66.4%

X2 — level or České Budějovice ahead39.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 722 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hradec Králové: at least 10Actual: 7
České Budějovice: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Hradec Králové: at least 6Actual: 5
České Budějovice: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hradec Králové score2.13

Attack: Hradec Králové score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: České Budějovice concede 60% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals České Budějovice score0.64

Attack: České Budějovice score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hradec Králové's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.8%1–012.7%3–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.