Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 25

Baník Ostrava–Mlada Boleslav

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 March 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Ostrava

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Mlada BoleslavMatyáš Vojta (assist: Daniel Mareček)
31'Baník OstravaFilip Kubala (assist: T. Rigo)
35'Baník OstravaMichal Kohút

Match statistics

Match statistics
Baník Ostrava		Mlada Boleslav
19	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
388	Passes	401
315	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Baník Ostrava 2.06 · Mlada Boleslav 0.92. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Baník Ostrava 19 · Mlada Boleslav 13; on target 8 and 2.

Referee

D. Černý→

4.56

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.2%: “Baník Ostrava to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.06 for Baník Ostrava, 0.92 for Mlada Boleslav.
The highest double chance value is 85.6% (1X — Baník Ostrava win or draw).
These values were computed from 704 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Baník Ostrava to win64.2%

Draw21.5%

Mlada Boleslav to win14.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Baník Ostrava lead at half-time41.3%

Level at half-time40.6%

Mlada Boleslav lead at half-time18.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Baník Ostrava ahead or level82.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Mlada Boleslav ahead58.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 704 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Baník Ostrava: at least 9Actual: 9
Mlada Boleslav: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Baník Ostrava: at least 7Actual: 5
Mlada Boleslav: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Baník Ostrava score2.06

Attack: Baník Ostrava score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Mlada Boleslav's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mlada Boleslav score0.92

Attack: Mlada Boleslav score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Baník Ostrava concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.0%2–111.0%1–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.