Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 24

Slovan Liberec–Dukla Praha

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 March 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion U Nisy, Liberec

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'Slovan LiberecD. Višinský (assist: A. Ghali)
58'Dukla PrahaM. Doda (assist: J. Řezníček)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slovan Liberec		Dukla Praha
12	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	1
5	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
410	Passes	291
330	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slovan Liberec 1.91 · Dukla Praha 0.71. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Slovan Liberec 12 · Dukla Praha 7; on target 2 and 1.
Slovan Liberec kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

V. Opočenský→

3.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.4%: “Slovan Liberec to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for Slovan Liberec, 0.71 for Dukla Praha.
The highest double chance value is 88.3% (1X — Slovan Liberec win or draw).
These values were computed from 696 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slovan Liberec to win66.4%

Draw21.9%

Dukla Praha to win11.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,040 of 1,528 predictions were correct (68.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	16

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Slovan Liberec lead at half-time53.4%

Level at half-time38.2%

Dukla Praha lead at half-time8.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Slovan Liberec ahead or level91.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or Dukla Praha ahead46.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 696 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slovan Liberec: at least 12Actual: 15
Dukla Praha: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Slovan Liberec: at least 5Actual: 6
Dukla Praha: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slovan Liberec score1.91

Attack: Slovan Liberec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dukla Praha concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dukla Praha score0.71

Attack: Dukla Praha score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slovan Liberec's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.8%1–013.3%1–111.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.