Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 22

Karviná–Sparta Praha

2–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 February 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Městský Stadión, Karviná

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'KarvináDávid Krčík (assist: D. Samko)
10'KarvináD. Samko (assist: D. Planka)
20'Sparta PrahaL. Haraslin (assist: T. Wiesner)
45+11'Sparta PrahaL. Haraslin (assist: T. Wiesner)
53'Sparta PrahaL. Haraslin (assist: T. Wiesner)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Karviná		Sparta Praha
17	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	4
46%	Possession	54%
356	Passes	434
246	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karviná 0.87 · Sparta Praha 2.15. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Karviná 17 · Sparta Praha 12; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

D. Černý→

4.53

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.3%: “Sparta Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.87 for Karviná, 2.15 for Sparta Praha.
The highest double chance value is 87.5% (X2 — draw or Sparta Praha win).
These values were computed from 680 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karviná to win12.5%

Draw20.2%

Sparta Praha to win67.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,040 of 1,528 predictions were correct (68.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Karviná lead at half-time19.4%

Level at half-time38.8%

Sparta Praha lead at half-time41.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Karviná ahead or level58.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Sparta Praha ahead80.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 680 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karviná: at least 10Actual: 10
Sparta Praha: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Karviná: at least 4Actual: 4
Sparta Praha: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karviná score0.87

Attack: Karviná score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Praha concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sparta Praha score2.15

Attack: Sparta Praha score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Karviná concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.15 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–211.6%1–210.8%1–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.