Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 6

Sparta Praha–Slovácko

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 August 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: epet ARENA, Praha

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 14%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'SlováckoV. Sinyavskiy (assist: M. Krmencik)
20'Sparta PrahaAsger Sørensen (assist: M. Solbakken)
24'SlováckoM. Krmencik (assist: V. Sinyavskiy)
79'Sparta PrahaV. Birmančević (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Praha		Slovácko
17	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	3
3	Offsides	3
74%	Possession	26%
575	Passes	209
478	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Praha 2.50 · Slovácko 0.57. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Sparta Praha 17 · Slovácko 7; on target 7 and 4.
Sparta Praha kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

P. Orel→

3.30

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 80.5%: “Sparta Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.50 for Sparta Praha, 0.57 for Slovácko.
The highest double chance value is 94.6% (1X — Sparta Praha win or draw).
These values were computed from 550 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Praha to win80.5%

Draw14.1%

Slovácko to win5.4%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Sparta Praha lead at half-time64.4%

Level at half-time30.8%

Slovácko lead at half-time4.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sparta Praha ahead or level95.2%

12 — not level at half-time69.2%

X2 — level or Slovácko ahead35.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 550 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sparta Praha: at least 10Actual: 10
Slovácko: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Sparta Praha: at least 6Actual: 9
Slovácko: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Praha score2.50

Attack: Sparta Praha score 67% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Slovácko's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slovácko score0.57

Attack: Slovácko score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sparta Praha concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.0%3–012.6%1–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.