Eredivisie · Netherlands · Conference League Play-offs - Final

AZ Alkmaar–Twente

3–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 May 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

Goals and red cards

22'TwenteS. Steijn (penalty)
40'TwenteS. Steijn (assist: M. Vlap)
43'AZ AlkmaarMexx Meerdink
53'AZ AlkmaarR. van Bommel (assist: Wouter Goes)
90+3'AZ AlkmaarI. Sadiq

Match statistics

Match statistics
AZ Alkmaar		Twente
13	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
376	Passes	489
285	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar 1.77 · Twente 1.15. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots AZ Alkmaar 13 · Twente 11; on target 7 and 5.
Twente kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

S. Gözübüyük→

3.77

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.6%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.15 for Twente.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (1X — AZ Alkmaar win or draw).
These values were computed from 918 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AZ Alkmaar to win51.6%

Draw25.1%

Twente to win23.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time40.0%

Level at half-time39.1%

Twente lead at half-time20.9%

First-half double chance

1X — AZ Alkmaar ahead or level79.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Twente ahead60.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 918 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AZ Alkmaar: at least 10Actual: 10
Twente: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

AZ Alkmaar: at least 5Actual: 3
Twente: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.77

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Twente's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Twente score1.15

Attack: Twente score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–110.7%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.