Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 33

Almere City FC–Fortuna Sittard

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yanmar Stadion, Almere

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Almere City FCJ. Kadile (assist: V. Zagaritis)
79'Fortuna SittardB. Radulović (assist: Ivo Pinto)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Almere City FC		Fortuna Sittard
12	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
404	Passes	367
318	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Almere City FC 1.38 · Fortuna Sittard 1.31. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Almere City FC 12 · Fortuna Sittard 9; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

D. Makkelie→

3.50

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

102

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.8%: “Almere City FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for Almere City FC, 1.08 for Fortuna Sittard.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — Almere City FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 900 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Almere City FC to win52.8%

Draw25.3%

Fortuna Sittard to win21.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Almere City FC lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time44.2%

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time31.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Almere City FC ahead or level68.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Fortuna Sittard ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 900 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Almere City FC: at least 10Actual: 12
Fortuna Sittard: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Almere City FC: at least 5Actual: 5
Fortuna Sittard: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Almere City FC score1.38

Attack: Almere City FC score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.31

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Almere City FC's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.8%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.