Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 33

Feyenoord–Waalwijk

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+4'FeyenoordI. Paixao (assist: A. Hadj-Moussa)
69'FeyenoordA. Ueda (assist: I. Paixao)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Feyenoord		Waalwijk
22	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	1
15	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
511	Passes	435
441	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Feyenoord 2.98 · Waalwijk 0.63. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Feyenoord 22 · Waalwijk 6; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

M. Nagtegaal→

2.57

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.1%: “Feyenoord to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.19 for Feyenoord, 0.88 for Waalwijk.
The highest double chance value is 94.3% (1X — Feyenoord win or draw).
These values were computed from 900 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Feyenoord to win83.1%

Draw11.2%

Waalwijk to win5.7%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	4

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Feyenoord win or draw94.3%

12 — any result other than a draw88.8%

X2 — draw or Waalwijk win16.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (11.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Feyenoord lead at half-time79.5%

Level at half-time20.2%

Waalwijk lead at half-time0.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Feyenoord ahead or level99.8%

12 — not level at half-time79.8%

X2 — level or Waalwijk ahead20.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 900 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Feyenoord: at least 7Actual: 9
Waalwijk: at least 10Actual: 4

Corners

Feyenoord: at least 7Actual: 6
Waalwijk: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals78.8%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 131 of 170 predictions were correct (77.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Feyenoord score2.98

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Waalwijk concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.98 goals.

How many goals Waalwijk score0.63

Attack: Waalwijk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–09.5%3–19.0%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 900 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 100 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.