Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 33

PSV Eindhoven–Heracles

4–1

HT 4–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'PSV EindhovenMalik Tillman (assist: L. de Jong)
21'PSV EindhovenI. Saibari (assist: Malik Tillman)
35'PSV EindhovenI. Saibari (assist: S. Dest)
40'PSV EindhovenMalik Tillman (assist: Mauro Junior)
75'HeraclesM. Engels (assist: S. Podgoreanu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PSV Eindhoven		Heracles
30	Shots	3
11	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
10	Corners	1
0	Offsides	0
68%	Possession	32%
582	Passes	280
520	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven 3.35 · Heracles 0.52. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots PSV Eindhoven 30 · Heracles 3; on target 11 and 2.
PSV Eindhoven kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

B. Nijhuis→

2.20

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 90.0%: “PSV Eindhoven to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 7.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.73 for PSV Eindhoven, 0.76 for Heracles.
The highest double chance value is 97.1% (1X — PSV Eindhoven win or draw).
These values were computed from 900 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PSV Eindhoven to win90.0%

Draw7.1%

Heracles to win2.9%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 4–0

PSV Eindhoven lead at half-time74.5%

Level at half-time23.1%

Heracles lead at half-time2.4%

First-half double chance

1X — PSV Eindhoven ahead or level97.6%

12 — not level at half-time76.9%

X2 — level or Heracles ahead25.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 900 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PSV Eindhoven: at least 8Actual: 7
Heracles: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

PSV Eindhoven: at least 6Actual: 10
Heracles: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PSV Eindhoven score3.35

Attack: PSV Eindhoven score 79% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Heracles concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 3.35 goals.

How many goals Heracles score0.52

Attack: Heracles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PSV Eindhoven concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–010.0%4–09.4%3–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.