Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 33

Willem II–PEC Zwolle

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'PEC ZwolleY. Namli (assist: D. van den Berg)
72'Willem IIJ. Bosch
79'PEC ZwolleE. Reijnders (assist: K. de Rooij)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Willem II		PEC Zwolle
15	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	8
3	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
350	Passes	478
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Willem II 1.32 · PEC Zwolle 1.42. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Willem II 15 · PEC Zwolle 16; on target 3 and 6.
PEC Zwolle kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

S. Gözübüyük→

3.78

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “PEC Zwolle to win”. Second comes “Willem II to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Willem II, 1.46 for PEC Zwolle.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 900 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Willem II to win33.1%

Draw27.3%

PEC Zwolle to win39.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Willem II lead at half-time28.7%

Level at half-time44.0%

PEC Zwolle lead at half-time27.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Willem II ahead or level72.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or PEC Zwolle ahead71.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 900 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Willem II: at least 9Actual: 11
PEC Zwolle: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

Willem II: at least 4Actual: 3
PEC Zwolle: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Willem II score1.32

Attack: Willem II score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PEC Zwolle's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PEC Zwolle score1.42

Attack: PEC Zwolle score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Willem II's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–29.5%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.