Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 32

Almere City FC–Sparta Rotterdam

0–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yanmar Stadion, Almere

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'Sparta RotterdamM. van Bergen (assist: K. Hlynsson)
68'Sparta RotterdamM. Eerdhuijzen
89'Sparta RotterdamK. Hlynsson (assist: P. Clement)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Almere City FC		Sparta Rotterdam
17	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	9
9	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
416	Passes	393
324	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Almere City FC 1.25 · Sparta Rotterdam 1.39. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Almere City FC 17 · Sparta Rotterdam 15; on target 4 and 9.

Referee

A. Lindhout→

3.30

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.4%: “Sparta Rotterdam to win”. Second comes “Almere City FC to win” at 35.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Almere City FC, 1.53 for Sparta Rotterdam.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 894 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Almere City FC to win35.3%

Draw26.4%

Sparta Rotterdam to win38.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Almere City FC lead at half-time21.8%

Level at half-time43.5%

Sparta Rotterdam lead at half-time34.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Almere City FC ahead or level65.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Sparta Rotterdam ahead78.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 894 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Almere City FC: at least 9Actual: 6
Sparta Rotterdam: at least 8Actual: 8

Corners

Almere City FC: at least 5Actual: 6
Sparta Rotterdam: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Almere City FC score1.25

Attack: Almere City FC score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sparta Rotterdam's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sparta Rotterdam score1.39

Attack: Sparta Rotterdam score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Almere City FC's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%1–29.4%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.