Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 32

Waalwijk–Heerenveen

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'WaalwijkR. Margaret
36'HeerenveenI. Nicolaescu (penalty)
56'HeerenveenI. Sebaoui · red card
75'WaalwijkY. Oukili (assist: C. Lokesa)
79'WaalwijkC. Lokesa (assist: J. Familia-Castillo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Waalwijk		Heerenveen
18	Shots	3
6	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
398	Passes	400
331	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Waalwijk 1.55 · Heerenveen 1.58. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Waalwijk 18 · Heerenveen 3; on target 6 and 1.

Referee

E. van de Graaf→

3.19

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.6%: “Heerenveen to win”. Second comes “Waalwijk to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Waalwijk, 1.85 for Heerenveen.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 892 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Waalwijk to win28.9%

Draw24.4%

Heerenveen to win46.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Waalwijk lead at half-time22.8%

Level at half-time40.0%

Heerenveen lead at half-time37.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Waalwijk ahead or level62.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Heerenveen ahead77.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 892 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Waalwijk: at least 9Actual: 10
Heerenveen: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Waalwijk: at least 4Actual: 5
Heerenveen: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Waalwijk score1.55

Attack: Waalwijk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heerenveen score1.58

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Waalwijk concede 30% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%1–210.1%2–17.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.