Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 31

Groningen–Waalwijk

6–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Euroborg, Groningen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'GroningenL. Bacuna (penalty)
45+2'GroningenS. Resink (assist: L. Bacuna)
46'GroningenN. Emeran (assist: L. Valente)
50'GroningenS. Resink
60'GroningenT. van Bergen
67'WaalwijkG. Roemeratoe
89'

Match statistics

Match statistics
Groningen		Waalwijk
22	Shots	9
12	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
353	Passes	450
285	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Groningen 1.74 · Waalwijk 1.14. On the pitch: 6-1.
Shots Groningen 22 · Waalwijk 9; on target 12 and 4.
Waalwijk kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Gözübüyük→

3.77

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.0%: “Groningen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.14 for Groningen, 0.79 for Waalwijk.
The highest double chance value is 88.9% (1X — Groningen win or draw).
These values were computed from 886 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Groningen to win69.0%

Draw19.8%

Waalwijk to win11.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Groningen lead at half-time48.4%

Level at half-time37.0%

Waalwijk lead at half-time14.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Groningen ahead or level85.4%

12 — not level at half-time63.0%

X2 — level or Waalwijk ahead51.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 886 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Groningen: at least 8Actual: 10
Waalwijk: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

Groningen: at least 5Actual: 5
Waalwijk: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Groningen score1.74

Attack: Groningen score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Waalwijk concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Waalwijk score1.14

Attack: Waalwijk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Groningen's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.6%1–010.7%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.