Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 30

Almere City FC–GO Ahead Eagles

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yanmar Stadion, Almere

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Almere City FC		GO Ahead Eagles
29	Shots	5
8	Shots on target	1
20	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
13	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
401	Passes	477
331	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Almere City FC 1.24 · GO Ahead Eagles 1.64. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Almere City FC 29 · GO Ahead Eagles 5; on target 8 and 1.

Referee

J. Manschot→

3.22

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.8%: “GO Ahead Eagles to win”. Second comes “Almere City FC to win” at 36.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Almere City FC, 1.58 for GO Ahead Eagles.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 883 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Almere City FC to win36.4%

Draw25.7%

GO Ahead Eagles to win37.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Almere City FC win or draw62.2%

12 — any result other than a draw74.3%

X2 — draw or GO Ahead Eagles win63.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Almere City FC lead at half-time19.7%

Level at half-time38.9%

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time41.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Almere City FC ahead or level58.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or GO Ahead Eagles ahead80.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 883 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Almere City FC: at least 10Actual: 9
GO Ahead Eagles: at least 8Actual: 6

Corners

Almere City FC: at least 4Actual: 13
GO Ahead Eagles: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Almere City FC score1.24

Attack: Almere City FC score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.64

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Almere City FC's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–29.2%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 883 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 64 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.