Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 30

Fortuna Sittard–Willem II

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 10:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'Fortuna SittardE. Bullaude (assist: J. Dahlhaus)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Sittard		Willem II
13	Shots	4
2	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
387	Passes	390
335	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Sittard 1.75 · Willem II 1.02. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Fortuna Sittard 13 · Willem II 4; on target 2 and 2.

Referee

S. Gözübüyük→

3.81

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.6%: “Fortuna Sittard to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for Fortuna Sittard, 0.94 for Willem II.
The highest double chance value is 81.6% (1X — Fortuna Sittard win or draw).
These values were computed from 880 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Sittard to win56.6%

Draw25.0%

Willem II to win18.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Fortuna Sittard lead at half-time33.5%

Level at half-time43.2%

Willem II lead at half-time23.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Sittard ahead or level76.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Willem II ahead66.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 880 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Sittard: at least 9Actual: 12
Willem II: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Fortuna Sittard: at least 5Actual: 4
Willem II: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Sittard score1.75

Attack: Fortuna Sittard score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Willem II's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Willem II score1.02

Attack: Willem II score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Sittard's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–011.1%2–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.