Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 31

Heerenveen–Almere City FC

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 April 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Almere City FCJ. Kadile (assist: K. Hansen)
14'HeerenveenJ. Trenskow (assist: O. Braude)
36'HeerenveenJ. Ritmeester van de Kamp (own goal)
69'HeerenveenM. Kohlert · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heerenveen		Almere City FC
14	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
465	Passes	388
368	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heerenveen 1.80 · Almere City FC 1.05. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Heerenveen 14 · Almere City FC 12; on target 2 and 3.

Referee

R. Hensgens→

3.60

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.6%: “Heerenveen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for Heerenveen, 1.17 for Almere City FC.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (1X — Heerenveen win or draw).
These values were computed from 873 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heerenveen to win52.6%

Draw24.6%

Almere City FC to win22.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Heerenveen lead at half-time46.4%

Level at half-time38.3%

Almere City FC lead at half-time15.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Heerenveen ahead or level84.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Almere City FC ahead53.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 873 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heerenveen: at least 9Actual: 9
Almere City FC: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Heerenveen: at least 6Actual: 4
Almere City FC: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heerenveen score1.80

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Almere City FC's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Almere City FC score1.05

Attack: Almere City FC score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–110.8%2–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.