Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 29

Utrecht–Groningen

3–1

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 April 2025 at 10:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'UtrechtSouffian El Karouani
17'UtrechtY. Cathline (assist: M. van der Hoorn)
32'GroningenS. Resink
42'UtrechtS. Haller (assist: Miguel Rodríguez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Utrecht		Groningen
11	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
39%	Possession	61%
363	Passes	575
261	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Utrecht 1.84 · Groningen 0.99. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Utrecht 11 · Groningen 10; on target 4 and 3.
Groningen kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

E. van de Graaf→

3.19

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.6%: “Utrecht to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Utrecht, 1.00 for Groningen.
The highest double chance value is 77.5% (1X — Utrecht win or draw).
These values were computed from 869 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Utrecht to win50.6%

Draw26.9%

Groningen to win22.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–1

Utrecht lead at half-time35.7%

Level at half-time41.6%

Groningen lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Utrecht ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Groningen ahead64.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 869 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Utrecht: at least 9Actual: 6
Groningen: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Utrecht: at least 4Actual: 2
Groningen: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Utrecht score1.84

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Groningen's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Groningen score0.99

Attack: Groningen score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–011.1%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.