Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 28

GO Ahead Eagles–Utrecht

2–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'GO Ahead EaglesV. Edvardsen (assist: Oliver Antman)
17'GO Ahead EaglesM. Suray (assist: Oliver Antman)
43'UtrechtY. Cathline (assist: P. Aaronson)
45'UtrechtMiguel Rodríguez (assist: S. Haller)

Match statistics

Match statistics
GO Ahead Eagles		Utrecht
11	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
1	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
525	Passes	333
451	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: GO Ahead Eagles 1.77 · Utrecht 1.32. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots GO Ahead Eagles 11 · Utrecht 14; on target 6 and 3.
GO Ahead Eagles kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

S. Gözübüyük→

3.86

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “GO Ahead Eagles to win”. Second comes “Utrecht to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for GO Ahead Eagles, 1.39 for Utrecht.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 861 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

GO Ahead Eagles to win42.4%

Draw26.0%

Utrecht to win31.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time33.4%

Level at half-time41.7%

Utrecht lead at half-time24.9%

First-half double chance

1X — GO Ahead Eagles ahead or level75.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Utrecht ahead66.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 861 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 9Actual: 9
Utrecht: at least 9Actual: 16

Corners

GO Ahead Eagles: at least 5Actual: 1
Utrecht: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.77

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Utrecht score1.32

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–19.9%1–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.