Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 28

Waalwijk–Heracles

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 10:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Waalwijk		Heracles
10	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	9
1	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
387	Passes	407
315	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Waalwijk 1.82 · Heracles 1.44. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Waalwijk 10 · Heracles 10; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

M. Nagtegaal→

2.61

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Waalwijk to win”. Second comes “Heracles to win” at 33.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Waalwijk, 1.38 for Heracles.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 860 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Waalwijk to win39.7%

Draw26.8%

Heracles to win33.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Waalwijk lead at half-time28.5%

Level at half-time40.3%

Heracles lead at half-time31.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Waalwijk ahead or level68.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Heracles ahead71.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 860 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Waalwijk: at least 9Actual: 11
Heracles: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Waalwijk: at least 5Actual: 6
Heracles: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Waalwijk score1.82

Attack: Waalwijk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heracles concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heracles score1.44

Attack: Heracles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Waalwijk concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–19.6%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.