Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 27

PSV Eindhoven–Ajax

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 March 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 17%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'AjaxD. Klaassen (assist: Lucas Rosa)
67'AjaxB. Traore (assist: Matheus)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PSV Eindhoven		Ajax
17	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
554	Passes	367
480	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven 2.06 · Ajax 1.23. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots PSV Eindhoven 17 · Ajax 11; on target 4 and 3.
PSV Eindhoven kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

S. Gözübüyük→

3.87

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.7%: “PSV Eindhoven to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.28 for PSV Eindhoven, 1.17 for Ajax.
The highest double chance value is 83.2% (1X — PSV Eindhoven win or draw).
These values were computed from 850 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PSV Eindhoven to win62.7%

Draw20.5%

Ajax to win16.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

PSV Eindhoven lead at half-time36.6%

Level at half-time40.1%

Ajax lead at half-time23.2%

First-half double chance

1X — PSV Eindhoven ahead or level76.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Ajax ahead63.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 850 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PSV Eindhoven: at least 8Actual: 10
Ajax: at least 8Actual: 8

Corners

PSV Eindhoven: at least 5Actual: 5
Ajax: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PSV Eindhoven score2.06

Attack: PSV Eindhoven score 73% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Ajax concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.06 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Ajax score1.23

Attack: Ajax score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: PSV Eindhoven concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.23 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–110.7%1–19.4%2–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.