Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 26

Heerenveen–Heracles

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'HeraclesJ. Hornkamp (assist: B. De Keersmaecker)
44'HeerenveenM. Linday (assist: M. Kohlert)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heerenveen		Heracles
19	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
562	Passes	317
497	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heerenveen 2.00 · Heracles 1.18. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Heerenveen 19 · Heracles 6; on target 3 and 2.
Heerenveen kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

E. van de Graaf→

3.22

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.1%: “Heerenveen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Heerenveen, 1.01 for Heracles.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (1X — Heerenveen win or draw).
These values were computed from 839 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heerenveen to win52.1%

Draw26.2%

Heracles to win21.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Heerenveen lead at half-time39.1%

Level at half-time39.5%

Heracles lead at half-time21.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Heerenveen ahead or level78.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or Heracles ahead60.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 839 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heerenveen: at least 10Actual: 8
Heracles: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Heerenveen: at least 5Actual: 10
Heracles: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heerenveen score2.00

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heracles concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heracles score1.18

Attack: Heracles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–010.7%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.