Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 23

NEC Nijmegen–Almere City FC

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 February 2025 at 11:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'NEC NijmegenS. Ouaissa
45'Almere City FCRicardo Visus (assist: Thom Haye)
74'Almere City FCH. Akujobi (assist: K. Hansen)
90+4'NEC NijmegenV. van Crooij (assist: B. Önal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
NEC Nijmegen		Almere City FC
9	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	7
4	Offsides	3
48%	Possession	52%
360	Passes	390
259	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NEC Nijmegen 2.06 · Almere City FC 0.88. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots NEC Nijmegen 9 · Almere City FC 13; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

E. van de Graaf→

3.20

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.4%: “NEC Nijmegen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for NEC Nijmegen, 0.91 for Almere City FC.
The highest double chance value is 84.3% (1X — NEC Nijmegen win or draw).
These values were computed from 811 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NEC Nijmegen to win61.4%

Draw22.9%

Almere City FC to win15.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

NEC Nijmegen lead at half-time43.3%

Level at half-time40.2%

Almere City FC lead at half-time16.5%

First-half double chance

1X — NEC Nijmegen ahead or level83.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Almere City FC ahead56.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 811 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NEC Nijmegen: at least 8Actual: 12
Almere City FC: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

NEC Nijmegen: at least 6Actual: 4
Almere City FC: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score2.06

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Almere City FC's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Almere City FC score0.88

Attack: Almere City FC score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–011.1%2–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.