Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 16

NAC Breda–AZ Alkmaar

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 December 2024 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'NAC BredaE. Omarsson (assist: B. Kemper)
76'AZ AlkmaarT. Parrott (assist: Peer Koopmeiners)
85'NAC BredaL. Greiml · red card
90+2'AZ AlkmaarMees De Wit

Match statistics

Match statistics
NAC Breda		AZ Alkmaar
4	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	6
2	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
35%	Possession	65%
287	Passes	535
205	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NAC Breda 1.28 · AZ Alkmaar 1.63. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots NAC Breda 4 · AZ Alkmaar 15; on target 2 and 6.
AZ Alkmaar kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

E. van de Graaf→

3.08

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.2%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for NAC Breda, 1.53 for AZ Alkmaar.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (X2 — draw or AZ Alkmaar win).
These values were computed from 755 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NAC Breda to win26.4%

Draw27.4%

AZ Alkmaar to win46.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	9

5	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

NAC Breda lead at half-time26.2%

Level at half-time43.0%

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time30.8%

First-half double chance

1X — NAC Breda ahead or level69.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or AZ Alkmaar ahead73.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 755 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NAC Breda: at least 9Actual: 15
AZ Alkmaar: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

NAC Breda: at least 3Actual: 1
AZ Alkmaar: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NAC Breda score1.28

Attack: NAC Breda score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.63

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–210.2%0–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.