Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 10

AZ Alkmaar–GO Ahead Eagles

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 October 2024 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'AZ AlkmaarT. Parrott (penalty)
49'AZ AlkmaarD. Kasius (assist: T. Parrott)
51'GO Ahead EaglesG. Nauber (assist: J. Breum)
85'GO Ahead EaglesV. Edvardsen (assist: Oliver Antman)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AZ Alkmaar		GO Ahead Eagles
13	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
616	Passes	432
535	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar 1.97 · GO Ahead Eagles 1.06. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots AZ Alkmaar 13 · GO Ahead Eagles 10; on target 6 and 3.
AZ Alkmaar kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

R. Martens→

2.63

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.2%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.00 for GO Ahead Eagles.
The highest double chance value is 81.4% (1X — AZ Alkmaar win or draw).
These values were computed from 699 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AZ Alkmaar to win57.2%

Draw24.1%

GO Ahead Eagles to win18.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time55.2%

Level at half-time35.1%

GO Ahead Eagles lead at half-time9.6%

First-half double chance

1X — AZ Alkmaar ahead or level90.4%

12 — not level at half-time64.9%

X2 — level or GO Ahead Eagles ahead44.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 699 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AZ Alkmaar: at least 10Actual: 9
GO Ahead Eagles: at least 8Actual: 6

Corners

AZ Alkmaar: at least 5Actual: 4
GO Ahead Eagles: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.97

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: GO Ahead Eagles's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals GO Ahead Eagles score1.06

Attack: GO Ahead Eagles score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.9%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.