Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 6

Almere City FC–Twente

0–5

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 September 2024 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yanmar Stadion, Almere

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'TwenteS. Steijn (assist: B. van Rooij)
45+1'TwenteS. Steijn
55'TwenteS. Lammers (assist: A. Salah-Eddine)
73'TwenteR. van Wolfswinkel
75'TwenteA. Salah-Eddine (assist: M. Hilgers)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Almere City FC		Twente
16	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	8
12	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
318	Passes	512
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Almere City FC 0.90 · Twente 1.93. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Almere City FC 16 · Twente 16; on target 4 and 8.
Twente kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

R. Martens→

2.67

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.0%: “Twente to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.97 for Almere City FC, 2.11 for Twente.
The highest double chance value is 85.2% (X2 — draw or Twente win).
These values were computed from 661 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Almere City FC to win14.8%

Draw21.2%

Twente to win64.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	5

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Almere City FC lead at half-time14.3%

Level at half-time39.0%

Twente lead at half-time46.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Almere City FC ahead or level53.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or Twente ahead85.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 661 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Almere City FC: at least 11Actual: 9
Twente: at least 8Actual: 5

Corners

Almere City FC: at least 3Actual: 7
Twente: at least 6Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Almere City FC score0.90

Attack: Almere City FC score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Twente concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Twente score1.93

Attack: Twente score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Almere City FC's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–211.0%1–110.5%0–210.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.