Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Round - 10

Kallithea–Lamia

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 22 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Athens

Goals and red cards

12'KallitheaM. Alfarela (assist: P. Soiri)
54'KallitheaM. Alfarela
59'KallitheaP. Soiri

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kallithea		Lamia
7	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
411	Passes	373
371	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kallithea 1.78 · Lamia 0.77. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Kallithea 7 · Lamia 10; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

S. Tsimenteridis→

4.95

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.7%: “Kallithea to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for Kallithea, 0.77 for Lamia.
The highest double chance value is 85.7% (1X — Kallithea win or draw).
These values were computed from 618 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kallithea to win61.7%

Draw24.0%

Lamia to win14.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,232 of 4,768 predictions were correct (46.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kallithea win or draw85.7%

12 — any result other than a draw76.0%

X2 — draw or Lamia win38.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kallithea lead at half-time34.6%

Level at half-time45.3%

Lamia lead at half-time20.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Kallithea ahead or level79.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Lamia ahead65.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 617 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kallithea: at least 13Actual: 18
Lamia: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Kallithea: at least 5Actual: 1
Lamia: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (50.2%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kallithea score1.78

Attack: Kallithea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lamia concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lamia score0.77

Attack: Lamia score below the league average (45% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kallithea concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.3%2–012.7%1–112.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 618 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 26 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.