Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Round - 9

Volos NFC–Kallithea

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos

Goals and red cards

27'KallitheaG. Loukinas
72'KallitheaM. Alfarela (assist: G. Loukinas)
77'KallitheaNicolas Isimat-Mirin · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Volos NFC		Kallithea
14	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
473	Passes	294
404	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Volos NFC 1.09 · Kallithea 1.34. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Volos NFC 14 · Kallithea 9; on target 2 and 5.
Volos NFC kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

A. Sidiropoulos→

5.68

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.5%: “Kallithea to win”. Second comes “Volos NFC to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Volos NFC, 1.34 for Kallithea.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 618 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Volos NFC to win29.3%

Draw29.2%

Kallithea to win41.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Volos NFC lead at half-time23.1%

Level at half-time49.4%

Kallithea lead at half-time27.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Volos NFC ahead or level72.5%

12 — not level at half-time50.6%

X2 — level or Kallithea ahead76.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 617 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Volos NFC: at least 14Actual: 13
Kallithea: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

Volos NFC: at least 4Actual: 6
Kallithea: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Volos NFC score1.09

Attack: Volos NFC score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kallithea concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kallithea score1.34

Attack: Kallithea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Volos NFC concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–110.9%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.