Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Round - 8

Volos NFC–Lamia

3–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos

Goals and red cards

2'Volos NFCL. Labrou (assist: Juanpi)
38'Volos NFCH. Hermannsson (assist: Franco Ferrari)
40'Volos NFCL. Labrou

Match statistics

Match statistics
Volos NFC		Lamia
18	Shots	4
6	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	0
3	Offsides	1
68%	Possession	32%
627	Passes	297
563	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Volos NFC 1.34 · Lamia 0.91. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Volos NFC 18 · Lamia 4; on target 6 and 1.
Volos NFC kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

I. Papadopoulos→

5.11

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “Volos NFC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Volos NFC, 0.91 for Lamia.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (1X — Volos NFC win or draw).
These values were computed from 618 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Volos NFC to win46.3%

Draw29.7%

Lamia to win23.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

20	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,232 of 4,768 predictions were correct (46.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Volos NFC win or draw76.1%

12 — any result other than a draw70.3%

X2 — draw or Lamia win53.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.7%).

First half

Actual: 3–0

Volos NFC lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time49.3%

Lamia lead at half-time25.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Volos NFC ahead or level74.1%

12 — not level at half-time50.7%

X2 — level or Lamia ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 617 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Volos NFC: at least 14Actual: 20
Lamia: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Volos NFC: at least 4
Lamia: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (50.2%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Volos NFC score1.34

Attack: Volos NFC score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lamia concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lamia score0.91

Attack: Lamia score below the league average (45% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Volos NFC concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–013.5%0–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 618 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 88 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.