Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Round - 8

Kallithea–Panserraikos

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 14 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Athens

Goals and red cards

10'KallitheaM. Alfarela (assist: K. Lebon)
46'PanserraikosPanagiotis Deligiannidis
90+3'KallitheaE. Giani · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kallithea		Panserraikos
6	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	3
3	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
409	Passes	464
337	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kallithea 1.74 · Panserraikos 1.05. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Kallithea 6 · Panserraikos 13; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

V. Fotias→

4.76

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.2%: “Kallithea to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Kallithea, 1.05 for Panserraikos.
The highest double chance value is 78.6% (1X — Kallithea win or draw).
These values were computed from 618 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kallithea to win53.2%

Draw25.4%

Panserraikos to win21.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,773 of 6,688 predictions were correct (56.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kallithea win or draw78.6%

12 — any result other than a draw74.6%

X2 — draw or Panserraikos win46.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kallithea lead at half-time30.2%

Level at half-time44.2%

Panserraikos lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Kallithea ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Panserraikos ahead69.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 617 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kallithea: at least 13Actual: 17
Panserraikos: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Kallithea: at least 5Actual: 3
Panserraikos: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,890 of 5,366 predictions were correct (53.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kallithea score1.74

Attack: Kallithea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Panserraikos concede 42% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Panserraikos score1.05

Attack: Panserraikos score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kallithea concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–110.8%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 618 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 26 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.