Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Round - 6

Lamia–Levadiakos

2–3

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Monday, 5 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia

Goals and red cards

15'LevadiakosA. Ozbolt (assist: Benjamin Verbič)
24'LevadiakosZini (assist: Fabricio Pedrozo)
33'LamiaA. Vlachomitros (assist: C. Soria)
41'LevadiakosZini (assist: Panagiotis Liagas)
51'LamiaAndreas Athanasakopoulos (assist: S. Ring)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lamia		Levadiakos
7	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	5
2	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
384	Passes	500
310	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lamia 0.88 · Levadiakos 1.40. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Lamia 7 · Levadiakos 13; on target 3 and 5.
Levadiakos kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Tsimenteridis→

5.00

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “Levadiakos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.88 for Lamia, 1.40 for Levadiakos.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (X2 — draw or Levadiakos win).
These values were computed from 616 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lamia to win22.2%

Draw29.0%

Levadiakos to win48.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	25

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

Lamia lead at half-time22.2%

Level at half-time46.1%

Levadiakos lead at half-time31.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Lamia ahead or level68.2%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Levadiakos ahead77.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 615 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lamia: at least 13Actual: 11
Levadiakos: at least 13Actual: 25

Corners

Lamia: at least 4Actual: 4
Levadiakos: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lamia score0.88

Attack: Lamia score below the league average (45% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levadiakos's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levadiakos score1.40

Attack: Levadiakos score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lamia concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–113.6%0–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.