Super League 1 · Greece · Championship Round - 5

Olympiakos Piraeus–PAOK

4–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Piraeus

Goals and red cards

1'PAOKA. Zivkovic
14'Olympiakos PiraeusK. Velde (assist: A. El Kaabi)
30'Olympiakos PiraeusA. El Kaabi (assist: Santiago Hezze)
32'PAOKA. Zivkovic (assist: Taison)
81'Olympiakos PiraeusChiquinho (assist: Gelson Martins)
87'Olympiakos PiraeusGelson Martins (assist: Roman Yaremchuk)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Olympiakos Piraeus		PAOK
10	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
423	Passes	415
321	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.71 · PAOK 0.91. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Olympiakos Piraeus 10 · PAOK 10; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

D. Aytekin→

3.48

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.3%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0.91 for PAOK.
The highest double chance value is 81.7% (1X — Olympiakos Piraeus win or draw).
These values were computed from 614 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos Piraeus to win56.3%

Draw25.4%

PAOK to win18.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Olympiakos Piraeus lead at half-time37.8%

Level at half-time42.4%

PAOK lead at half-time19.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Olympiakos Piraeus ahead or level80.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or PAOK ahead62.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 613 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 12Actual: 12
PAOK: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 4Actual: 4
PAOK: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score1.71

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.71 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals PAOK score0.91

Attack: PAOK score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 49% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.91 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–011.7%2–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.