Super League 1 · Greece · Conference League Play-off Group - 5

OFI–Aris Thessalonikis

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Heraklion

Goals and red cards

6'OFIVasilis Lampropoulos (assist: Borja González)
89'Aris ThessalonikisD. Špikić (assist: Monchu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OFI		Aris Thessalonikis
13	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	1
3	Offsides	6
42%	Possession	58%
324	Passes	459
255	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OFI 1.27 · Aris Thessalonikis 1.36. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots OFI 13 · Aris Thessalonikis 13; on target 3 and 6.
Aris Thessalonikis kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

A. Tzilos→

5.50

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Aris Thessalonikis to win”. Second comes “OFI to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for OFI, 1.36 for Aris Thessalonikis.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 614 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OFI to win33.8%

Draw28.2%

Aris Thessalonikis to win38.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

OFI lead at half-time26.1%

Level at half-time44.9%

Aris Thessalonikis lead at half-time29.0%

First-half double chance

1X — OFI ahead or level71.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Aris Thessalonikis ahead73.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 613 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OFI: at least 13Actual: 12
Aris Thessalonikis: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

OFI: at least 4Actual: 8
Aris Thessalonikis: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OFI score1.27

Attack: OFI score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aris Thessalonikis's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aris Thessalonikis score1.36

Attack: Aris Thessalonikis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OFI concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–29.2%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.