Super League 1 · Greece · Relegation Round - 3

Panserraikos–Kallithea

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Serres

Goals and red cards

5'KallitheaM. Alfarela (assist: Demethryus)
15'PanserraikosP. Staikos (assist: M. Fares)
51'KallitheaTriantafyllos Pasalidis · red card
84'PanserraikosJefté Betancor (penalty)
90'PanserraikosJ. Salazar (assist: Stephane Omeonga)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Panserraikos		Kallithea
18	Shots	4
7	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
533	Passes	271
456	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Panserraikos 1.32 · Kallithea 1.41. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Panserraikos 18 · Kallithea 4; on target 7 and 1.
Panserraikos kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

S. Tsimenteridis→

4.94

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “Kallithea to win”. Second comes “Panserraikos to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Panserraikos, 1.41 for Kallithea.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 610 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Panserraikos to win33.8%

Draw27.7%

Kallithea to win38.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Panserraikos lead at half-time37.7%

Level at half-time43.2%

Kallithea lead at half-time19.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Panserraikos ahead or level80.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Kallithea ahead62.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 609 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Panserraikos: at least 12Actual: 15
Kallithea: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Panserraikos: at least 4Actual: 5
Kallithea: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Panserraikos score1.32

Attack: Panserraikos score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kallithea's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kallithea score1.41

Attack: Kallithea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Panserraikos concede 39% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.4%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.