Super League 1 · Greece · Championship Round - 2

PAOK–Olympiakos Piraeus

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Toumbas, Thessaloníki

Goals and red cards

5'PAOKG. Konstantelias (assist: F. Chalov)
10'PAOKM. Camara (assist: A. Zivkovic)
52'Olympiakos PiraeusG. Michailidis (own goal)
74'PAOKM. Camara · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAOK		Olympiakos Piraeus
7	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	0
5	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	4
40%	Possession	60%
286	Passes	410
186	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAOK 1.13 · Olympiakos Piraeus 1.47. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots PAOK 7 · Olympiakos Piraeus 7; on target 2 and 0.
Olympiakos Piraeus kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

S. Stegemann→

4.99

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for PAOK, 1.47 for Olympiakos Piraeus.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (X2 — draw or Olympiakos Piraeus win).
These values were computed from 608 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAOK to win27.6%

Draw27.9%

Olympiakos Piraeus to win44.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

PAOK lead at half-time31.1%

Level at half-time44.1%

Olympiakos Piraeus lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — PAOK ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Olympiakos Piraeus ahead68.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 607 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PAOK: at least 11Actual: 14
Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

PAOK: at least 4Actual: 2
Olympiakos Piraeus: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAOK score1.13

Attack: PAOK score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 49% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.13 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score1.47

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 63% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.47 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–110.1%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.